Manufacturing PMI® At 47.1%; April 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® — Apparel, Leather & Allied Products Report Growth

TEMPE, Ariz. — May 2, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.1 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.3 percent recorded in March. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fifth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.7 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 44.3 percent recorded in March. The Production Index reading of 48.9 percent is a 1.1-percentage point increase compared to March’s figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 53.2 percent, up 4 percentage points compared to the March figure of 49.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.1 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the March reading of 43.9 percent. The Employment Index elevated into expansion territory, registering 50.2 percent, up 3.3 percentage points from March’s reading of 46.9 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 44.6 percent is 0.2 percentage point lower than the 44.8 percent recorded in March; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped 1.2 percentage points to 46.3 percent, lower than the March reading of 47.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.8 percent is 2.2 percentage points higher than March’s figure of 47.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, though just barely, at 49.9 percent, 2 percentage points above the 47.9 percent reported in March.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted again; however, the Manufacturing PMI® improved compared to the previous month, indicating slower contraction. The April composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting, but at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index slightly below 50 percent but improving, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index entering the low end of ‘too high’ territory, a negative for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index continuing in strong contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, with a combined 4.4-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index indicated slight expansion after two months of contraction, and the Production Index logged a fifth month in contraction territory, though at a slightly slower rate. Panelists’ comments continue to indicate near equal levels of activity toward expanding and contracting head counts at their companies, amid mixed sentiment about when significant growth will return. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index dropped further into contraction as panelists’ companies manage inventories exposure. The Prices Index moved back into ‘increasing’ territory, at a moderate level, after one month of marginally decreasing prices.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment — registered growth in April.

“New order rates remain sluggish as panelists remain concerned about when manufacturing growth will resume. Panelists’ comments registered a 1-to-1 ratio regarding optimism for future growth and continuing near-term demand declines. Supply chains are prepared and eager for growth, as panelists’ comments support reduced lead times for their more important purchases. Price instability remains and future demand is uncertain as companies continue to work down overdue deliveries and backlogs. Seventy-three percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) is contracting, up from 70 percent in March. However, fewer industries contracted strongly; the proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March,” says Fiore.

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in April are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting contraction in April, in the following order, are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

“Having invested heavily to de-risk the supply chain over the last three years due to COVID-19, we are looking to reset with a number of our suppliers to reduce inventory, which has grown steadily over that period. Lead times are generally coming down, although electronic components are still a concern.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Business continues to contract, albeit slowly year over year. We are burning existing inventory when possible and catching up on orders. Suppliers are shipping materials at a faster pace, especially to get the payable process started at the end of the first quarter. Employment is steady, with manpower decisions based on expected order flow in the second quarter, which is subject to change. Staffing levels in our sector are not decreasing, but employment openings are slowing across the economy, which reduces the pool of replacement candidates. We are currently projecting that the third quarter will see some improvement in business, especially in our metals coating for the aerospace industry. But unforeseen circumstances — international or domestic — could change things quickly.” [Chemical Products]

“Pricing pressures continue to plague daily operations. After consecutive years of inflation and aggressive pricing to our retailers, we are starting to see resistance in the willingness to pass along pricing to end consumers. Discounting has entered into conversations.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Business is steady. Closely monitoring demand going forward to detect a negative trend.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Customers seem to be quite heavy on inventory (as is my employer). This has made for a significant slowdown in sales orders for the last number of months.” [Machinery]

“Faster deliveries and shorter lead times from suppliers. … Customers starting to talk build rate reductions for the second half of 2023.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Business conditions remain strong, with sales and bookings exceeding plan. The backlog continues to grow due to increased bookings and supply chain constraints on electronic components.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Sales continue to be soft, similar to 2019 pre-COVID. Expect softness to last for as long as another two years.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“Business is picking up a bit in the automotive and construction industries — not on par with 2022 but beginning to look better.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

“We seem to be in a season of contradictions. Business is slowing, but in some ways, it isn’t. Prices for some commodities are stabilizing, but not for others. Some product shortages are over, others aren’t. Trucking is more plentiful, except when it isn’t. There’s uncertainty one day, but not the next. The next couple of months should provide answers — or not. It’s hard to make projections at the moment.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Copper (5); Diesel; Electrical Components (6); Electronic Components (3); High Density Polyethylene (HDPE); Labor — Temporary; Plastic Resins* (2); Polypropylene (3); Steel (3); Steel — Carbon; Steel — Hot Rolled (2); Steel — Stainless (3); and Steel Products (4).

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum; Corrugate (5); Corrugated Boxes (4); Epoxy; Freight (6); Methanol; Natural Gas (5); Ocean Freight (8); Plastic Resins* (11); Steel; and Wood Pallets.

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (31); Electronic Components (29); Labor — Temporary; Plastic Resins; and Semiconductors (29).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

APRIL 2023 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in April, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.1 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the reading of 46.3 percent recorded in March. “This is the sixth month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, only one (Employment) is in growth territory. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in April. The Production Index logged a fifth month in contraction territory. Three of the 10 subindexes were above 50 percent for the period,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted in April for a fifth consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the April reading (47.1 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.6 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index contracted for the eighth consecutive month in April, registering 45.7 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to March’s reading of 44.3 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported increased new orders. New orders contraction slowed as panelists’ companies continue to experience uncertainty regarding future customer demand,” says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The eight manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in April — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. Six industries reported a decline in new orders in April, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Primary Metals.

Production
The Production Index registered 48.9 percent in April, 1.1 percentage points higher than the March reading of 47.8 percent, indicating a fifth month of contraction after 30 consecutive months of growth. “Of the top six industries, four — Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in April. The index recorded its best performance since it went into contraction in December 2022. Weak contraction in the Production Index continues to support manufacturing executives’ strategy to stretch out output during the first half of 2023, as panelists’ companies attempt to retain sufficient workers to prepare for better second-half performance,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of April are, in order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in April are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; and Chemical Products.

Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 50.2 percent in April, 3.3 percentage points higher than the March reading of 46.9 percent. “The index indicated employment expanded after two months of contraction. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products) expanded. For the second straight month, labor management sentiment at panelists’ companies reflects near parity between hiring and staffing reductions. Turnover rates declined in April, recording the lowest levels since measurements began in mid-2021. For those companies increasing their head counts, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, seven reported employment growth in April, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in April are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. Six industries reported no change in employment.

Supplier Deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a seventh straight month in April, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 44.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 44.8 percent reported in March. This month’s reading indicates the fastest supplier delivery performance since March 2009, when the index registered 43.2 percent. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Computer & Electronic Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments now indicate that suppliers have excess capacity to meet all of their customers’ current demand forecasts,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Three of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in April: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 10 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in April as compared to March — in the following order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 46.3 percent in April, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.5 percent reported for March. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a faster rate compared to March. Of the six big manufacturing industries, only one (Petroleum & Coal Products) increased manufacturing inventories in April. Manufacturing inventory levels recorded their lowest performance since August 2020, when the index registered 44.9 percent. Manufacturing inventories continue to be managed down by panelists’ companies as they prepare for lower production output,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the five reporting higher inventories in April are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 12 industries reporting contracting inventories in April — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Customers’ Inventories†
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 51.3 percent in April, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 48.9 percent reported for March. “Customers’ inventory levels are now at the low end of the ‘too high’ level as panelists report their companies’ customers have signaled suppliers to deliver less material in the future. In April, customer inventories reached levels likely not conducive to future output growth,” says Fiore.

The seven industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in April are, in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The six industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in April are, in order: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 53.2 percent, 4 percentage points higher compared to the March reading of 49.2 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased in April. The index returned to expansion (or “increasing”) territory after one month in contraction. “Panelists’ comments support a more balanced supplier-buyer relationship, as sellers are more concerned about filling order books to support their backlogs. Price increases for foundational purchased materials like steel, copper, plastics and diesel continue to put upward pressure on material costs. Of the top six manufacturing industries, four (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported price increases in April. Panelists’ companies reporting ‘higher’ prices (26 percent in April, up from 21 percent in March) support a general trend that price reductions may have ended in the near- to medium-term,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In April, nine industries — in the following order — reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in April — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.1 percent in April, a 0.8-percentage point decrease compared to March’s reading of 43.9 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the seventh consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, none expanded order backlogs in April. “The index remains in strong contraction as factories continue to work backlogs down amid weak new order levels,” says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in order backlogs in April: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; and Paper Products. Thirteen industries reported lower backlogs in April, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

New Export Orders†
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 49.8 percent in April, 2.2 percentage points higher than the March reading of 47.6 percent. “The New Export Orders Index contracted in April for the ninth consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory, but the index registers near parity with the month of February. Comments supported improved order levels from China and Europe, but as was the case in March, activity remains weak,” says Fiore.

Five industries reported growth in new export orders in April: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The seven industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in April — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. Six industries reported no change in exports in April compared to March.

Imports†
ISM®’s Imports Index registered 49.9 percent in April, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to March’s figure of 47.9 percent. “The index contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a five-month period of expansion, but at a slower pace and registering near-equal performance to February. Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that the index reading reflects sluggish demand,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting an increase in import volumes in April — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The six industries that reported lower volumes of imports in April — listed in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. Six industries reported no change in imports in April compared to March.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in April was 170 days, a decrease of eight days compared to March. Average lead time in April for Production Materials was 90 days, an increase of three days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, unchanged from March.

Posted: May 2, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management