M
ills are rocking along with full running schedules. Most market segments look good.
“We are still running strong, flat out seven days,” said an open-end spinner. “Cotton is
very strong. Blends are not quite as strong. We’ve been running strong going back into last year.”
Spinners are optimistic about the near-term business outlook with the Dominican
Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) in place, although a few do see signs of
easing demand.
“As far as the next few months, it
looks as if the weaving market is slowing down, which will affect the yarn market soon,” said one
ring spinner.
A pickup in hosiery orders is expected because of China safeguards, while the upholstery
fabric market continues to lag. The growing appeal of leather furniture may be depressing this
segment. Furniture makers also report slow sales, due in part to aggressive promotions from
automakers.
CAFTA-DR Opportunity
Most spinners see DR-CAFTA as an opportunity and perhaps the only way to compete with Asia.
“[DR-]CAFTA was really a matter of saving the industry,” said a multisystem spinner. “
Critics said we would lose jobs, and I don’t disagree. But I think it was a matter of losing jobs
or losing the industry. Some of the more labor-intensive work, which has been going out of the
United States for many years, will continue to move out. But there will be a base left that might
not have been possible without [DR-]CAFTA.”
No More Step 2?
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has proposed eliminating Step 2 payments in response to
the World Trade Organization ruling in Brazil’s case against the US cotton program. Step 2 is part
of the Three-Step Competitiveness Program included in the 1990 farm bill that helped offset low
cotton pricing from other countries in the late ‘80s.
Spinners appear neutral on the possible elimination, but have concerns about when and how the
change will be implemented. It is vitally important to the mills that they be able to buy cotton at
the same price as competitors abroad.
“Step 2 rectifies the difference between world and US cotton prices,” said a mill executive. “
I think it is reasonable to assume that without Step 2 prices, cotton prices will actually fall.
[T]he market will have to make up that difference if US cotton is going to be competitive on the
world scene. Over the last 10 years, the United States has become a residual supplier to the world.
We have gone from a 65/35 split of US cotton being used domestically to the opposite — 35/65. So
they will have to be competitive in terms of world prices.”
Connecting With Retailers
One spinner described yarn prices as stable at best. Others admitted to a falloff in pricing due
to conditions at retail. US spinners would like to see more cooperation between themselves and
retailers. They feel more products could be sourced in the United States if retailers didn’t
automatically exercise the China option.
“In the past year, our average price has dropped 20 cents a pound,” said a specialty ring
spinner. “There is tremendous price pressure from the retailer. They don’t accept any price
increases. You have to make it cheaper than you did last year. That’s very difficult with the price
of energy, labor and just about everything else going up.”
Cotton prices should stay relatively stable, with China, India and domestic producers
planning to increase plantings.
In the USDA’s June acreage report, it estimated 2005-06 US cotton plantings at 14 million
acres, up 2.7 percent. Upland planted area is estimated to have increased 2.6 percent to 13.8
million acres.
On a regional basis, upland area in the Southeast is up 1 percent to about 3 million acres.
Planted acres are expected to increase to 3.9 million
in the mid-South in 2005, up 13.1 percent. In the Southwest, estimated upland area is down
0.9 percent to 6.1 million acres. Estimated upland area in the West is down 8.4 percent to 795,000
acres.
The USDA estimates extra-long-staple plantings of 266,000 acres, up 6.6 percent. The largest
percentage increase is in Arizona; estimated plantings there are up 33.3 percent to 4,000 acres.
Plantings also are up 7 percent in California and 4.8 percent in Texas.
September 2005
